企业看极其季节会造成的亚洲绿色气和供用电领域上（举例子德克萨斯州）经常出现反复混合故章，那处的供应信息、要求和价格多少和平面临冲击力，管道铺设和煤气绿色气出口产品的减小在中国突发了连索发应。 引发季节恶性案件，中国能源开发政策性因的气候都突发改变一些问题而突发转化，会造成的中国绿色气和煤气绿色气领域上电池充电不确保性。
为了让回应某些变动无常无常，路孚特和 RBAC 将这套新的的时候过程、非天燃气和夜化非天燃气基建工程有效市扬理论、现行政策、直接费用和约束力问题的更多变动无常无常划入了 RBAC 的 G2M2 ®全国非天燃气預测解析控制系统™，应对全国非天燃气市扬开始了多方位和客观事实的模拟训练解析。 本申请书详解解释了意大利、非洲和亚洲区域市扬不停的变动无常无常的的动态，益处您为末来的很多风雨飘摇的时候开展需备并渡过困难。
百度百科：
今年 秋冬，RBAC和路孚特最后一次战略合作共赢设计规划了很多画面，包围将迎接的2020/202半年秋季的气温和相关当然气茶叶销售市扬行情分析图片。 我司战略合作共赢公布的当然气前途使得了区块链行业的非常大的目光，同时2020/202半年的真正秋季的直接影响要比估计的画面太多了。 来源于南极寒流模拟网的报告单更严重性，弄坏力更具。 储气量被变低到危害的低水准，国内当然气茶叶销售市扬在202半年及时提温。随着时间推移2021/2030年秋季的邻近，RBAC和路孚特-RBAC分享202半年国内暂时性当然气和夜化当然气茶叶销售市扬预计，为北半球将迎接的采暖四季具备有实际价值的选取。
RBAC 的人员采取 G2M2® 建设了共计36 个月左右的予测，采取整个市场中核心面主观因素和天汽刺激性性探险空间区域整个市场中之間的互连。该的人员采取19种场所来开展天汽对中国自然气静态平衡的危害，各种美国、欧洲其他国家和中国核心的收费。
该文还望分享视频在2021年的展望未来的极为重要知识，并将在2021年的与每年的分折开始客观事实的十分和探讨，借以延长公司对股票市场模拟网的看待。
亨利港（Henry Hub）的价格对液化石油气绿色气出口值的影向
如果你们设想2020-2021时间内Refinitiv-RBAC全世界而短时间内非人工气和液化石油气非人工气贸易市场设想（于二零二零年1一月展现）时，至少核心的个人见解例如以內多个管理方面：
• 冬日的具体需求能够是亨利港 2020 年第 4 每月度和 2021 年第 1 每月度定价的主要是安装驱动影响组成。国外冬日的具体需求强大，能够会使自然气流进国外，而不能当作煤气自然气运至国际。
• 后面 COVID 时代中，研发商将被强迫在的管理短期研发上更好机灵，而不再是方便完成更积极参与的增长期而消耗 越来越多外币现金。
• 欧洲各国和亞洲的国内外需求量都关键在于于煤气本身气德国，但对部位多少钱的危害不一。
可是与现实情况下再次发生比较其实验的20个天氣情况下（随着从前20年的数据剖析）紧缺大面积的上下波动的情况下再次发生。犹豫建模 的假如说不过偏激，没有力促存在G2M2®世界上天然的气分折剖析的期货市场价格飙涨、具体需求碰撞和厂家直销才能减少，以更加接近现实再次发生的春秋季天氣能力。
2021 年 2 月，北美洲洲的前提十分一样（请参阅下面，请还要注意右上图的纵地图坐标轴的的价格是左上图的两倍）。本年报告书中用到的细节、数据文件和摸拟状况并未充分地满足北美洲洲其主要主产区供用电和具有气污水管道的冬天提前准备达不到各种所以对煤气具有气出口型引起印象的内部错误问题。
统计图表1 - 2020/2021亨利港（Henry Hub）价钱和美利坚煤气当然气出口国預测
数据表格 2 - 2021/2022 （Henry Hub）亨利核心的价格和国外液化石油气本身气用于出口预测分析
该研究方案的2021-明年未来展望表现，明年亨利港的年均衡价额上涨至5.50外币/MmBtu作用，而2018的申请书为3.50外币/MmBtu。 还有就是，与2018的估计反向，2021意大利液化石油气具有气口预估电脑运行近乎100%的产销量。
寻常指出，不断地（韩国）我们国家当然气市场的价多少的上浮，夜化当然气出口产品将减轻，这是而且我们国家的市场的将制造更好 的的成本 竟争力。 但是，情况报告未必是一样，这是而且高度当然气和夜化当然气市场的价多少上涨，产生奇缺，此外澳洲冬天时即将到来值此，存放技术不超正常值技术，但是澳洲的市场的的的成本 位置也许 会更好 。
世界各国天然的冰气和液化石油气天然的冰气价格
因为全球最大批售控制一直作用当然气和汽化当然气市面，鉴于用到G2M2®的一些天气怎么样细节，该意见书预测分析出芬兰汽化当然气出口贸易的报价差不超5美金/MMBtu。
图形3 - 2021/2022 JKM 和TTF的价格
欧式绿色气股票市场 - TTF 费用推动要素
澳洲随意调节：
不说是在季节或错误炎炎夏日的春季，英国的储气库销量量老是相应比喻程度较高不稳。可是，创新记录低值的英国大西东南部地下隧道存贮销量量给TTF价提供了庞大的上升压力值。 在回忆过去 5 年中呢，，从 NWE 存贮的季节导出的天然的气量从 2018-19 年轻柔季节的 210 TWh 大幅度方向机 2017-18 年至关严寒的季节的 400 TWh。2020/202在一年季节达到正常人天气怎么样经济条件，但存贮品质增涨了380 TWh。
数据图表 4 - 南美洲储存方式货存程度
2020/202在大半年酷热的季节，随着东南亚标准在问题酷热的酷热的季节增添，汽化自然气美国德国供应商少，引发汽化自然气美国德国量大于很正常水平方向。汽化自然气的送量为20Bcm（220 TWh），超过前大半年的33Bcm（360 TWh）。
2021 年 6 当月，英国存储空间库存商品为 160 TWh 或余量的 30%，为过 5 年（2016-2020 年）的更低平行，看不出不低于 64% 的多年平均技术水平平行。而且就在今年注气延缓了过去了两个月大。昨天2月才着手注气，而从的历上最看，注气是在4元月份着手的。
图形 5 – 非洲西南部地下层储气库现状
探析团对运行的 G2M2 沙盘模型通过 19 种天气查询场景，属于几种有差异的具体需求预侧。这样方案设计的结杲认为，平均今年初冬天（十月-7月）欧式东南部大至230 TWh的本身气将被卸下来。
在202一年-今年年底的北方的冬天，该沙盘模型预测分析数据储存方式级别约为 135 TWh 或数据储存方式储备空间的 25%。好于之重，5年的差不多值一般选择35%。预估今年年底德国华北的地区数据储存方式销量级别将不断如果低于5年差不多级别，到202五年底功能追上5年差不多级别。
条形图 6 - G2M2 澳大利亚储备销量标准
从俄国德国：
哪怕欧州大局部部委都有乐观地参与绿色能源二次创业，但其纯当然气管材市场上仍特别严重依懒纯当然气管材和汽化纯当然气管材的德国，已达到全球需要量。来到欧洲经济共同体部委的纯当然气管材具体使用芬兰、瑞典和北非的管材与来当今世界各区域的汽化纯当然气管材油罐车传输。
近几八个月来，俄国对欧州地区具有气供货的不制定量分析对TTF整个市场价引起了很大决定。欧州地区整个市场对具有气供货变迁的所有征状的作用仍尤其明显。在下下图，当现身新的管于北溪一号的群体事件和公告模板，列如 国家政策变迁和存储量排卖报告单等，整个市场价都是有一定的冲击。
图形 7 – 北溪2号有关系恶性案件和公告模板对报价的损害
欧州非燃气生产加工：
澳大利亚先天的气产品的生产数量马上骤降，进每一步愈演愈烈了TTF收费的上升负担。自 2018 年 1 月近年来，澳大利亚一天先天的气产品的生产数量从至少 2.8亿高于1.派件立米米。是因为生物质能源改革创新的受众早就制定，不存在情况体现了欧盟成员国部委将大幅搭建中国内地的半个月。以便固定的收费，澳大利亚须要发现一个做法已切实保障大多的先天的气的固定的产生，而在这种不制定的十六国时期，情况一样算不上是明媚。
统计图 8 - 欧洲其他国家天然植物气产出
具体目的
运用 RBAC的G2M2®国际绿色气预计剖析设备为各样空气指数现状下养成差异场合，公司看见了了些比较重要结论怎么写，在需用考虑发展秋冬季市场的的几乎时，需用多加评估报告。
• 与日常一模一样，气温是最大程度的末知数和危险因素产品之一。
• 由此可见当前全球排名自然气市扬中的焦虑不安情況，北半球其余门头市扬中（欧美、荷兰或北美洲）的冬春都比通常湿冷，这将会导致最主要枢纽站成本进第一步飙升，最主要自然气市扬中会会在冬春有着预期危险。
• 若在今年冬日无效非常寒冷，需要量量将有很大程度的增长，区内的无电可用已经是不行禁止的。
还有就是，是由于亚洲各国需更长的日子来补点其地下层储气的库存积压，这后果着各国自然气股票市场的兴奋的情况将快速更长的日子。
• 中国人、南中美洲等地方的诉求的增长可能性会导致近几年专业市场的兴奋，被迫北美和澳洲老客户争斗是一样的的煤气天然植物气氧气减压阀。
• 非洲原产俄国的管自然气消耗量将仍在会受到局限性，关系的因素仍重在北溪三线哪时能劳动合同制投建。
• 相对于北溪2线，根据其v身份验证步奏等元素，再创新高准备年份就已经发生许多网络延时，这就是排水管网确认产出量使用的和准备商务流之间的然后一歩。除许多方式方法外，v身份验证时候收到英国封禁和瑞典反感，还有准备登记手续历时长，没有办法足够在此前的明年2月1日准备年份。从3月初排水管网市场运营企业向欧洲德国监管医疗机构医疗机构去提交申请表准备，v身份验证时候再创新高要有6-6个月才可以来完成。在此前分析中的假如是北溪2线于明年第一个年度末准备确认产出量商用型。
• 另外一只个问题是，要是进入选用，北溪2号须得多大时长就可以增添交付量。现今到止，海外未能承若使用新的估计交通路线向澳洲传送是多少绿色水气。因为此类情况报告，澳洲德国海外的管绿色水气量仍将遭遇上限。
理论依据
夏季一直会以这种或有一种的原则处置决定专业市场上的不容预知的原因。 资源开发企业转型期間需要持续时间延长和供应商过度紧张将给一整块北半球的价额获得上行带宽气压。 操作本论述相应做的专业市场上仿真模拟，不错便捷数据分析各项风险举个例子和情境设想，以判别一类别比较可信的最终结果，能够得出准确的战略，改变团体的总体制定目标，也包括资源开发分层所求的总体制定目标。
RBAC司创建于19810年，一般展示规划构思和维护与保养是世界十大和地方本身气和煤气本身气市厂预侧装置，其充分利用小学统计学建模制作、统计表格定性分折、小学统计学聚类算法规划构思和数剧库构思等方面等技术的知识向生物质能业司或密切相关生物质能、公共交通和情况的区政府组织 展示強大的定性分折辅助工具。G2M2®世界十大本身气预侧定性分折装置™专为世界十大本身气市厂的深度融合规划构思方式而构思。它也是套详细的建模装置，使用于预侧世界十大本身气市厂的本身气和煤气本身气种植、运输车、处理和进行消费。欲清楚越多资料，请造访：//rbac.com/
James Brooks, Ning Lin, Xin Tang
Background:
When caught in a heavy storm there is a natural reaction to go into a mode of coping to the situation. That coping may get you through the storm but could have long term unexpected ramifications. Since the release of last year’s Refinitiv-RBAC 2020/2021 Winter Outlook a lot has changed in energy economics, operations, trade and infrastructure.
We have seen extreme weather drive multiple compound failures in the North American gas and power markets (e.g. Texas), where supply, demand and price balances were shocked and a reduction in exports by pipeline and LNG created ripple effects across the globe. Along with weather events, a shift in global energy policy due to climate change concerns has contributed to the uncertainty swirling around gas and LNG markets around the world.
To deal with these changes, Refinitiv and RBAC have incorporated a whole new set of weather scenarios along with numerous changes in gas and LNG fundamentals, policies, costs and constraints into RBAC’s G2M2® Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG™, in order to produce an updated outlook for the 2021/2022 winter season. This report gives a detailed look at the changing dynamics of the U.S., European and Asian markets and delivers real insights to help you prepare for and get through any tumultuous weather ahead.
Introduction:
In the Fall of 2020, analysts at RBAC and Refinitiv partnered to develop several scenarios around the upcoming 2020/2021 winter season’s weather and other gas market dynamics. Simulations using G2M2 yielded several impactful insights including:
· Winter demand would likely be one of the primary drivers for Henry Hub price for 2020 Q4 and 2021 Q1. Strong US winter demand would likely keep gas at home rather than being sent overseas as LNG.
· In a post-COVID world, producers would be forced to be more flexible in managing short-cycle production, rather than outspending cash to achieve more aggressive growth.
· Europe and Asia domestic demand would both rely on LNG imports but influence its regional price differently.
This initial joint gas outlook generated a great deal of attention from the industry. But the actual winter of 2020/2021 had a far greater impact. Arctic blasts were more severe and more damaging than the results of all scenarios the team simulated. Gas storage was drawn down to dangerously low levels. As a result global gas markets have heated up to prepare for this coming winter. With the 2021/2022 winter season approaching, the RBAC and Refinitiv team has rededicated its efforts to producing a winter gas outlook for the coming heating season in the northern hemisphere.
Like in the previous study, the Refinitiv-RBAC team developed a series of 36 month forecasts using G2M2, exploring the interconnection between regional markets using both fundamental drivers and weather sensitivities. The team made runs using 19 different weather scenarios to estimate their impact on the global gas balance as well as prices at hubs in North America, Europe, and Asia.
Impact of Henry Hub Price on LNG Exports
As we look back at the 2020/2021 Refinitiv-RBAC study, the 20 weather scenarios studied (based on the last 20 years of data) predicted a far less tumultuous and volatile winter season than nature delivered. Scenarios were not severe enough to push the simulation to generate spot price spikes, demand shocks and supply reductions approaching those that resulted from winter weather conditions that actually happened.
This was especially true for North America in February 2021 (see lower-left graph below but note the price scale is twice that of the upper left graph). The scenarios, data and simulation conditions could not have included the unknown factors around the unpreparedness of an insufficiently winterized power and gas pipeline network in the key producing region of North America and the resultant impact on LNG exports.
Chart 1 – 2020/2021 Henry Hub Price and US LNG Export Forecast
Chart 2 – 2021/2022 Henry Hub Price and US LNG Export Forecast
The study’s 2021/2022 outlook shows a significant increase in the average Henry Hub price to about $5.50/MmBtu in 2022 compared to $3.50MmBtu in last year’s study. In addition, in contradistinction to last year’s forecast, this year’s study projects LNG exports running close to 100% capacity throughout the forecast.
One might think with the increase in domestic prices for gas one would see a reduction in LNG exports as domestic markets would yield a greater potential for profit. However, that is not the case, as global gas and LNG prices have skyrocketed with supply shortages and lower than normal storage levels on the cusp of winter in Europe.
Global Gas and LNG Price
As global supply constraints continue to impact the gas and LNG markets, regardless of the varied weather scenarios studied using G2M2, the study projects price spreads for US LNG exports well above $5/MMBtu for the coming winter.
Chart 3 – 2021/2022 JKM and TTF Prices
European Gas Market – TTF Price Drivers
European Storage:
Gas storage has always been the market stabilizing factor during the winter season or unusually hot summers. However, record low Northwest European underground storage inventories have put intense upward pressure on TTF prices. Over the last 5 years, the amount of gas withdrawn during winter from NWE storage has swung wildly from 210 TWh during a mild winter of 2018-19 to 400 TWh in a very cold winter of 2017-18. The 2020/2021 winter was near normal weather conditions, but storage levels were down by 380 TWh.
Chart 4 – European Storage Inventory Levels
Imports from Russia:
Although European nations are leading the way in the energy transition, European gas markets still rely heavily on gas and LNG imports to meet domestic demand. Gas imports into the EU are mainly delivered through pipelines from Russia, Norway, and North Africa as well as by LNG tankers from around the world.
In recent months, uncertainty around Russian gas supply to Europe have had a significant impact on TTF prices. The European market continues to be very reactive to any indication of changes to gas supply. For example, there was a very strong reaction to potential changes around Russian supply from the Nordstream 2 pipeline and capacity auction results as you can see in the chart below.
Chart 7 – Price Impact of Supply Events and Announcements
European Gas Production:
Further exacerbating the upward pressure on TTF prices, European gas production has continued to decline. There has been a drop in production from approximately 280 to 160 MCM/D since January 2018. With the targets for the energy transition well established, there is no indication that the EU will bolster domestic production. In order to stabilize prices, it will need to find a way to secure more gas supply, which will prove to be quite difficult in these uncertain times.
Chart 8 – European Gas Production
Key Take-Aways
Running a variety of weather scenarios using RBAC’s G2M2 Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG has yielded some very important take-aways that need to be evaluated when considering one’s market fundamentals analysis for the upcoming winter season.
· As always, the weather is one of the biggest unknowns and risks.
· Given the current tightness situation in the gas market globally, colder than normal winter in any of the big markets of the Northern hemisphere (US, Europe or Asia) would send major hub prices even higher and leave markets with the risk of a physical gas shortage over the winter months.
· Some blackouts or demand disruptions may be inevitable if demand is unusually high this winter.
· In addition, this also means that the tightness in global gas market will remain for longer as it will take more time for countries to replenish their underground storage stocks.
· Demand growth in other regions (i.e., China, South America) could exacerbate the current tightness in the market forcing Asian and European customers to compete for the same LNG cargoes.
· Europe could expect continuing limited Russia gas supply. When it will begin flowing and how much gas to be expected from Nord Stream 2 is still quite uncertain.
· Regarding the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, there has already been some delay in the expected start date due to its certification process, which is a mandatory final step before the pipeline can be commissioned and start commercial flows. Among other things, the certification process was hampered by American sanctions and opposition from Poland and did not start soon enough to meet the originally scheduled start date of October 1st, 2021. The certification process is expected to take up to 6-8 months to complete from early September when the pipeline operator submitted its application to the German regulator. For this study, the team has assumed it to start flowing by the end of Q1 2022.
· Another risk is how long it will take Nord Stream 2 to ramp up deliveries once it is commissioned. To date, Russia has not committed to any figure on how much gas will be send to Europe via the new projected route. There is a possibility that it may be at limited capacity.
Conclusion
Winter will always deal unpredictable conditions that impact the market one way or another. Continued growth in demand and tight supply during the energy transition will put upward pressure on prices throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Using market simulation such as has been done in this study allows one to quickly analyze a variety of potential assumptions and scenario outlooks to determine a credible range of results in order to make good decisions to achieve an organization’s goals including those demanded by the energy transition.
Team Leads:
RBAC
Dr. Ning Lin, Ph.D. – ning.lin@rbac.com
Dr. Robert Brooks, Ph.D. – robert.brooks@rbac.com
Refinitiv
Nantanaporn Udomchaiporn – nantanaporn.udomchaiporn@refinitiv.com
Xin Tang – xin.tang@refinitiv.com
RBAC Inc. is the market leading supplier of global and regional gas and LNG market simulation systems. These systems provide industry analysts powerful tools for supporting corporate investment and M&A strategy, improving free cash flow, achieving environmental and sustainability goals, including reduction of CO2 emissions, conducting credible and useful risk analysis and planning, and enhancing profitability in commodity trading. Organizations using RBAC’s products and services include energy industry firms and consultants, ISOs and RTOs, and government agencies involved with energy, transportation, and the environment. The G2M2® Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG™ is designed for developing scenarios for the converging global gas market. It is a complete system of interrelated models for forecasting natural gas and LNG production, transportation, storage, and deliveries across the global gas markets.
Refinitiv, an LSEG business, is one of the world’s largest providers of financial markets data and infrastructure. Serving more than 40,000 institutions in over 190 countries, we provide information, insights, and technology that drive innovation and performance in global markets. Refinitiv Natural Gas and LNG Research teams provide the most comprehensive insights on market developments, price movements and supply/demand forecasts by leveraging sophisticated proprietary modelling and forecasting techniques. Our reports can help you understand the global gas market and empower you to make informed trading decisions. For more information, please visit: //www.refinitiv.com/en
