当我们看过特别天气状况状况会造成亚洲当然气和能量市厂（这类德克萨斯州）现身几次组合常见故障，在那里的供给、需求分析和收费动平衡机感受到打击，排水管和煤气当然气出口产品的少在高度引发了连锁品牌反应迟钝。 持续性天气状况状况致死案，高度再生资源政策文件因适宜波动原因而发现的变化，会造成高度当然气和煤气当然气市厂满是不确实性。
为了让要对这种转变 ，路孚特和 RBAC 将一种新款的季节场面包括非夜化气和夜化非夜化气基本建设假设检验、税收政策、的成本和约束力这方面的很多转变 纳为了 RBAC 的 G2M2 ®世界各国非夜化气預测数据定性分析体统™，面向世界各国非夜化气行业开始了详细说明和事实的模拟机数据定性分析。 本该报告详细说明解释了美式、海外和亚洲地区行业不断的转变 的日常动态，有所帮助您为未来十年的很多乱局季节干好做准备并渡过难题。
简绍：
2050年秋冬，RBAC和路孚特第一，联合设计了众多消费3d场景，致力于将要来临的2020/2023年春秋季的气候和相关大自然气专业茶叶贸易行业市场动态化。 旨在联合撤稿的大自然气贸易行业市场前景造成了装修界的极大程度特别关注，虽然2020/2023年的实际情况春秋季的反应要比預测的消费3d场景太多了。 研究背景北极圈寒流虚拟的报告单更造成 ，弄坏力更高。 储气量被降低到产生的低能力，欧洲性大自然气专业贸易行业市场在2023年短时间内提温。随着时间的推移2021/2023年春秋季的越来越近，RBAC和路孚特-RBAC分享2023年欧洲性远期大自然气和汽化大自然气专业贸易行业市场构想，为北半球将要来临的保暖节气能提供有币值的考生。
RBAC 公司进行 G2M2® 规划设计了总额36 八个月的预测分析，进行的行业常规面原则和天气预报情况神经敏情绪化探秘范围的行业相互的互连。该公司进行19种情况来估评天气预报情况对全球性天然水气发展的引响，各类北美地区、欧州和中美洲交通枢纽的费用。
此贴想让共享2020回顾与展望的关键玩法，并将2020与今年的探讨使用客观性的较为和探讨，借以增进我国对市厂虚拟的看待。
亨利港（Henry Hub）报价对煤气本身气进口商的危害
如果你们集锦2020-202在一年Refinitiv-RBAC全世界一年期绿色气和汽化绿色气行业市场纵览（于今年 15月展现）时，在其中必要的独到见解收录以内这些方便：
• 冬天时供需也许是亨利港 2020 年第 4 第二第一季度和 2021 年第 1 第二第一季度价格多少的通常驱动程序原则之1。美利坚冬天时供需强悍，也许会使非天燃汽带到内部，而不会当做煤气非天燃汽运至园区。
• 后面 COVID 世界上中，产量的商将被强迫在服务管理短定期产量的方向更好灵活性，而都是只为保持更主动的倍增而耗费太多支付现金。
• 美国和北美洲的全球要都依耐于汽化先天气进口报关，但对区域性价额的直接影响有差异。
但有与现场业务实际上的状况不同之处其科学研究的20个夏天情景模拟（会根据结束20年的大数据）缺失幅度起伏较大的业务实际上的状况。致使型号的假说太少毁灭性，没办法助推引发G2M2®世界十大绿色气予测阐述的现货交易价额持续上升、的需求震荡和供货缩短，以达到现场会发生的用于冬季或严寒地区夏天状况。
2021 年 2 月，美国的条件非常一样（请参阅下面的图，请一般右上图的纵坐标系轴的价钱是左上图的两倍）。之前报告单中相结合的情景模拟系统、资料和模拟系统条件无法能够考虑到到美国一般主产地电量的使用和自然植物气管道的渡过冬天做准备过少及其在此对液化石油气自然植物气出口值引发影晌的不同客观因素。
图形1 - 2020/2021亨利港（Henry Hub）价钱和美利坚夜化绿色气出入口估计
条形图 2 - 2021/2022 （Henry Hub）亨利交通枢纽定价和荷兰夜化具有气出口处分析预测
该理论研究的2021-2030年展望未来展现，2030年亨利港的年差不多价格飙升至5.50元/MmBtu以內，而19年的报表为3.50元/MmBtu。 不但，与19年的分折恰恰相反，2019新加坡液化石油气天然植物气进口不断进行介于100%的扩产。
通常感觉，伴随（加拿大）中国具有气收费的上升，汽化具有气外贸出口将变少，而是中国贸易贸易市场将导致大的净毛利优势。 但，问题并不一定这样，而是环球具有气和汽化具有气收费上涨，产生缺乏，同时拉丁美洲用于冬季或严寒地区来到的时候，贮存总体关卡底于通常总体关卡，对此拉丁美洲贸易贸易市场的净毛利个人空间也许会大。
国内自然气和煤气自然气价值
因各国生产商减少接着决定天然的植物水气和煤气天然的植物水气市场的，依据操作G2M2®的各种类型空气指数情景模拟，该报告单预计出USA煤气天然的植物水气出口国的价格差达到5欧元/MMBtu。
图形3 - 2021/2022 JKM 和TTF的市场价
德国非人工气卖场 - TTF 价格多少驱动包条件
国外存储器：
不论什么是在东季或出现异常炎炎夏日的夏秋季，德国各国的储气库货源量一直都在取决于策略而言相对来说维持。但，创历史纪录低值的德国各国华南部地面贮存货源量给TTF多少钱带来了了庞大的上升压力值。 曾经的英文 5 年度，从 NWE 贮存的东季获取的非人工气量从 2018-19 年温暖东季的 210 TWh 同比转向机 2017-18 年尤其阴冷的东季的 400 TWh。2020/2023年东季达到正常值天气预报先决条件，但贮存横向走低了380 TWh。
数据图表 4 - 欧洲各国储备存储总体水平
2020/202大半年夏季，因此亚洲区域具体需求在异常处理极冷的夏季增多，煤气自然气入口生产增多，出现煤气自然气入口量超出一切正常水平方向。煤气自然气的发布量为20Bcm（220 TWh），超过前大半年的33Bcm（360 TWh）。
2021 年 6 各月初，欧洲各国存储器存货为 160 TWh 或发热量的 30%，为过 5 年（2016-2020 年）的最便宜质量，突出底于 64% 的十年分別质量。同一时间现在注气延期了事隔其中一天大。到了11月才開始注气，而从歷历上看，注气是在4各月開始的。
数据表格 5 – 非洲西东北部部地底储气库情形
论述精英团队的使用的 G2M2 对模型因为 19 种夏天细节，比如差异差异的供给推测。这一些细则的没想到体现了，不断在今年用于冬季或严寒地区（7月-5月）非洲西北地区部大概230 TWh的天然植物气将被掏出。
在202一年-2030年的寒冬，该实体模型予测保存水准约为 135 TWh 或保存出水量的 25%。相对于后，5年的均衡数值35%。再创新高下一年美国西南中南部保存库存量水准将坚持达不到5年均衡水准，有一天202一年底方可碰到5年均衡水准。
统计图 6 - G2M2 海外储存方式交易量水平面
从俄国原装进口：
纵然美国大部分地区的都会在正极地去生物质能转型期，但其具有气的市场仍比较严重依赖关系具有气和夜化具有气的入口，已达到全球业务需求。進入欧共体地区的的具有气最主要能够美国、爱沙尼亚和北非的管材及其产于地球全国各地的夜化具有气托车卸料。
近几三个月来，土耳其对澳洲其他国家天然冰水气供给的不确立性对TTF成本引发了特别大的决定。澳洲其他国家市面 对天然冰水气供给变动的一些症状的影响还特别强。在下图上，当出显新的有关于北溪2号的时间和通知，譬如法律法规变动和数量拍卖品然而等，成本总会有了冲击。
条形图 7 – 北溪十二号关联时件和通知对成本的会影响
英国非人工气种植：
英国非天燃气产品量接着走低，进一部日益突出了TTF的售价的上升负担。自 2018 年 1 月来，英国本周非天燃气产品量从大致需要 2.8亿减少为1.5亿万每立方。致使绿色能源改革创新的学习目标现已来断定，没能的情况发现欧盟成员国国将力开发设计我国国内的五天。为了更好地平稳的售价，英国需要遇到一些的方法已 保障大多的非天燃气的平稳出售，而在这些不来断定的十六国时期，新形势已经不算很明亮。
统计图表 8 - 澳大利亚自然气制造
具体分析方法
采用 RBAC的G2M2®高度非人工气预測进行分析系統特征提取很多夏天时候下养成不一情况，我们大家察觉没事些极为重要结论怎么写，在来考虑未来十年季节的市场的一般时，可以设施分析。
• 与日常是一样的，天气怎么样是上限的不同数和问题的一种。
• 因其阶段东方人自然气销售市厂的兴奋运行，北半球不管什么中小型销售市厂（瑞典、国外或东方人）的寒风凛冽的春季都比一切正常寒风凛冽，这将会造成常见联络线价进步骤上升，常见自然气销售市厂已经会在寒风凛冽的春季面对长期危害性。
• 只要近几年秋冬特别寒潮，各种销售量将适度增强，空间内的关机可能性是无法防止出现的。
除外，原因世界国家必须更长的时刻来补其地下停车场储气的货源，这预示着世界当然气股票市场的怯场的情形将维持更长的时刻。
• 中国现代、南中美洲等的国家的诉求扩大应该会愈演愈烈阶段行业市场的密集，驱使中美洲和海外企业争霸相同之处的汽化天然植物气供气。
• 法国进口清关海外的给水管天然冰气排放量将继读遭遇干扰，干扰关键因素仍是在于北溪三线何时能能正式开启建成投产。
• 观于北溪二线城市城市，在其资质身份验证程序流程等原因，开展打火时间时间早已有些许推迟了，这便是排水管已经开启投放到的使用和开使行业流以前的最后一个的一步。除其它的作用外，资质身份验证时给予加拿大制栽和瑞典抵制，且打火要办时长长，难以达到在既定的202一年5月1日开使时间时间。从-9月初排水管运营策划商向欧洲德国监管机购机购修改信息学生申请开使，资质身份验证时开展要求6-9个月才可以来完成。在此前探究中的假说是北溪二线城市城市于2020年第一次月度末开使已经开启投放到商用机。
• 另个高风险是，若是开始动用，北溪一号必须 多长时时才行多提货量。迄今结束结束，海外还没誓言可以通过新的平均的路线向欧式输送机高低纯天燃气。根据各种前提，欧式德国海外的管道铺设纯天燃气量仍将受到了的限制。
预期结果
北方的冬天总之会以那么或这么的措施操作印象领域的难以预知的情形。 生物质能经济转型一年后要最快延长和产生密集将给一个北半球的定价提供上行下行负压。 用本探析相应做的领域养成，能否最快讲解各项内在的假如说和细节构想，以选定一国产能信的的结果，要怎样设计出正确性的科学决策，实现个人总体目标团体的个人总体目标，还有生物质能过渡性所需求的个人总体目标。
RBAC单位正式成立于1988年，基本进行规划构思和设备维护是全国排名性和地方绿色气和煤气绿色气领域定量阐述介绍预估设备，其回收利用数学思维思维3D建模、统计显示定量阐述、数学思维思维计算方法规划构思和参数库构思方位等专业学识向自然燃料服务行业单位各类涵盖自然燃料、交通银行和学习环境的政府机关单位提拱强大的的定量阐述方式。G2M2®全国排名性绿色气定量阐述介绍预估定量阐述设备™专为全国排名性绿色气领域的融入规划构思的设计而构思。它就是一套系统软件的三维模型设备，适用定量阐述介绍预估全国排名性绿色气领域的绿色气和煤气绿色气生产销售、搬运、处理和购买。欲要了解更大问题，请网站访问：//rbac.com/
James Brooks, Ning Lin, Xin Tang
Background:
When caught in a heavy storm there is a natural reaction to go into a mode of coping to the situation. That coping may get you through the storm but could have long term unexpected ramifications. Since the release of last year’s Refinitiv-RBAC 2020/2021 Winter Outlook a lot has changed in energy economics, operations, trade and infrastructure.
We have seen extreme weather drive multiple compound failures in the North American gas and power markets (e.g. Texas), where supply, demand and price balances were shocked and a reduction in exports by pipeline and LNG created ripple effects across the globe. Along with weather events, a shift in global energy policy due to climate change concerns has contributed to the uncertainty swirling around gas and LNG markets around the world.
To deal with these changes, Refinitiv and RBAC have incorporated a whole new set of weather scenarios along with numerous changes in gas and LNG fundamentals, policies, costs and constraints into RBAC’s G2M2® Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG™, in order to produce an updated outlook for the 2021/2022 winter season. This report gives a detailed look at the changing dynamics of the U.S., European and Asian markets and delivers real insights to help you prepare for and get through any tumultuous weather ahead.
Introduction:
In the Fall of 2020, analysts at RBAC and Refinitiv partnered to develop several scenarios around the upcoming 2020/2021 winter season’s weather and other gas market dynamics. Simulations using G2M2 yielded several impactful insights including:
· Winter demand would likely be one of the primary drivers for Henry Hub price for 2020 Q4 and 2021 Q1. Strong US winter demand would likely keep gas at home rather than being sent overseas as LNG.
· In a post-COVID world, producers would be forced to be more flexible in managing short-cycle production, rather than outspending cash to achieve more aggressive growth.
· Europe and Asia domestic demand would both rely on LNG imports but influence its regional price differently.
This initial joint gas outlook generated a great deal of attention from the industry. But the actual winter of 2020/2021 had a far greater impact. Arctic blasts were more severe and more damaging than the results of all scenarios the team simulated. Gas storage was drawn down to dangerously low levels. As a result global gas markets have heated up to prepare for this coming winter. With the 2021/2022 winter season approaching, the RBAC and Refinitiv team has rededicated its efforts to producing a winter gas outlook for the coming heating season in the northern hemisphere.
Like in the previous study, the Refinitiv-RBAC team developed a series of 36 month forecasts using G2M2, exploring the interconnection between regional markets using both fundamental drivers and weather sensitivities. The team made runs using 19 different weather scenarios to estimate their impact on the global gas balance as well as prices at hubs in North America, Europe, and Asia.
Impact of Henry Hub Price on LNG Exports
As we look back at the 2020/2021 Refinitiv-RBAC study, the 20 weather scenarios studied (based on the last 20 years of data) predicted a far less tumultuous and volatile winter season than nature delivered. Scenarios were not severe enough to push the simulation to generate spot price spikes, demand shocks and supply reductions approaching those that resulted from winter weather conditions that actually happened.
This was especially true for North America in February 2021 (see lower-left graph below but note the price scale is twice that of the upper left graph). The scenarios, data and simulation conditions could not have included the unknown factors around the unpreparedness of an insufficiently winterized power and gas pipeline network in the key producing region of North America and the resultant impact on LNG exports.
Chart 1 – 2020/2021 Henry Hub Price and US LNG Export Forecast
Chart 2 – 2021/2022 Henry Hub Price and US LNG Export Forecast
The study’s 2021/2022 outlook shows a significant increase in the average Henry Hub price to about $5.50/MmBtu in 2022 compared to $3.50MmBtu in last year’s study. In addition, in contradistinction to last year’s forecast, this year’s study projects LNG exports running close to 100% capacity throughout the forecast.
One might think with the increase in domestic prices for gas one would see a reduction in LNG exports as domestic markets would yield a greater potential for profit. However, that is not the case, as global gas and LNG prices have skyrocketed with supply shortages and lower than normal storage levels on the cusp of winter in Europe.
Global Gas and LNG Price
As global supply constraints continue to impact the gas and LNG markets, regardless of the varied weather scenarios studied using G2M2, the study projects price spreads for US LNG exports well above $5/MMBtu for the coming winter.
Chart 3 – 2021/2022 JKM and TTF Prices
European Gas Market – TTF Price Drivers
European Storage:
Gas storage has always been the market stabilizing factor during the winter season or unusually hot summers. However, record low Northwest European underground storage inventories have put intense upward pressure on TTF prices. Over the last 5 years, the amount of gas withdrawn during winter from NWE storage has swung wildly from 210 TWh during a mild winter of 2018-19 to 400 TWh in a very cold winter of 2017-18. The 2020/2021 winter was near normal weather conditions, but storage levels were down by 380 TWh.
Chart 4 – European Storage Inventory Levels
Imports from Russia:
Although European nations are leading the way in the energy transition, European gas markets still rely heavily on gas and LNG imports to meet domestic demand. Gas imports into the EU are mainly delivered through pipelines from Russia, Norway, and North Africa as well as by LNG tankers from around the world.
In recent months, uncertainty around Russian gas supply to Europe have had a significant impact on TTF prices. The European market continues to be very reactive to any indication of changes to gas supply. For example, there was a very strong reaction to potential changes around Russian supply from the Nordstream 2 pipeline and capacity auction results as you can see in the chart below.
Chart 7 – Price Impact of Supply Events and Announcements
European Gas Production:
Further exacerbating the upward pressure on TTF prices, European gas production has continued to decline. There has been a drop in production from approximately 280 to 160 MCM/D since January 2018. With the targets for the energy transition well established, there is no indication that the EU will bolster domestic production. In order to stabilize prices, it will need to find a way to secure more gas supply, which will prove to be quite difficult in these uncertain times.
Chart 8 – European Gas Production
Key Take-Aways
Running a variety of weather scenarios using RBAC’s G2M2 Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG has yielded some very important take-aways that need to be evaluated when considering one’s market fundamentals analysis for the upcoming winter season.
· As always, the weather is one of the biggest unknowns and risks.
· Given the current tightness situation in the gas market globally, colder than normal winter in any of the big markets of the Northern hemisphere (US, Europe or Asia) would send major hub prices even higher and leave markets with the risk of a physical gas shortage over the winter months.
· Some blackouts or demand disruptions may be inevitable if demand is unusually high this winter.
· In addition, this also means that the tightness in global gas market will remain for longer as it will take more time for countries to replenish their underground storage stocks.
· Demand growth in other regions (i.e., China, South America) could exacerbate the current tightness in the market forcing Asian and European customers to compete for the same LNG cargoes.
· Europe could expect continuing limited Russia gas supply. When it will begin flowing and how much gas to be expected from Nord Stream 2 is still quite uncertain.
· Regarding the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, there has already been some delay in the expected start date due to its certification process, which is a mandatory final step before the pipeline can be commissioned and start commercial flows. Among other things, the certification process was hampered by American sanctions and opposition from Poland and did not start soon enough to meet the originally scheduled start date of October 1st, 2021. The certification process is expected to take up to 6-8 months to complete from early September when the pipeline operator submitted its application to the German regulator. For this study, the team has assumed it to start flowing by the end of Q1 2022.
· Another risk is how long it will take Nord Stream 2 to ramp up deliveries once it is commissioned. To date, Russia has not committed to any figure on how much gas will be send to Europe via the new projected route. There is a possibility that it may be at limited capacity.
Conclusion
Winter will always deal unpredictable conditions that impact the market one way or another. Continued growth in demand and tight supply during the energy transition will put upward pressure on prices throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Using market simulation such as has been done in this study allows one to quickly analyze a variety of potential assumptions and scenario outlooks to determine a credible range of results in order to make good decisions to achieve an organization’s goals including those demanded by the energy transition.
Team Leads:
RBAC
Dr. Ning Lin, Ph.D. – ning.lin@rbac.com
Dr. Robert Brooks, Ph.D. – robert.brooks@rbac.com
Refinitiv
Nantanaporn Udomchaiporn – nantanaporn.udomchaiporn@refinitiv.com
Xin Tang – xin.tang@refinitiv.com
RBAC Inc. is the market leading supplier of global and regional gas and LNG market simulation systems. These systems provide industry analysts powerful tools for supporting corporate investment and M&A strategy, improving free cash flow, achieving environmental and sustainability goals, including reduction of CO2 emissions, conducting credible and useful risk analysis and planning, and enhancing profitability in commodity trading. Organizations using RBAC’s products and services include energy industry firms and consultants, ISOs and RTOs, and government agencies involved with energy, transportation, and the environment. The G2M2® Market Simulator for Global Gas and LNG™ is designed for developing scenarios for the converging global gas market. It is a complete system of interrelated models for forecasting natural gas and LNG production, transportation, storage, and deliveries across the global gas markets.
Refinitiv, an LSEG business, is one of the world’s largest providers of financial markets data and infrastructure. Serving more than 40,000 institutions in over 190 countries, we provide information, insights, and technology that drive innovation and performance in global markets. Refinitiv Natural Gas and LNG Research teams provide the most comprehensive insights on market developments, price movements and supply/demand forecasts by leveraging sophisticated proprietary modelling and forecasting techniques. Our reports can help you understand the global gas market and empower you to make informed trading decisions. For more information, please visit: //www.refinitiv.com/en
